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Disease Risk Curves

November 2013 , Volume 103 , Number  11
Pages  1,108 - 1,114

G. Hughes, F. J. Burnett, and N. D. Havis

Crop and Soil Systems Research Group, SRUC, The King's Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK.

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Accepted for publication 15 March 2013.

Disease risk curves are simple graphical relationships between the probability of need for treatment and evidence related to risk factors. In the context of the present article, our focus is on factors related to the occurrence of disease in crops. Risk is the probability of adverse consequences; specifically in the present context it denotes the chance that disease will reach a threshold level at which crop protection measures can be justified. This article describes disease risk curves that arise when risk is modeled as a function of more than one risk factor, and when risk is modeled as a function of a single factor (specifically the level of disease at an early disease assessment). In both cases, disease risk curves serve as calibration curves that allow the accumulated evidence related to risk to be expressed on a probability scale. When risk is modeled as a function of the level of disease at an early disease assessment, the resulting disease risk curve provides a crop loss assessment model in which the downside is denominated in terms of risk rather than in terms of yield loss.

Additional keywords: conditional dependence, disease management, sequential diagnosis.

© 2013 The American Phytopathological Society