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Quantifying the economic benefits of the National Clean Plant Network for the tree fruit industry in the Pacific Northwest.
C. F. SEAVERT (1), J. Julian (1). (1) Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, U.S.A.

This project is an attempt to quantify the economic value of plant certification programs, specifically the NCPN, to the tree fruit growers in the Pacific Northwest through a Net Present Value assessment of the industry. Production budget models were developed for apple, cherry, pear and peach production systems based upon published Extension budgets, tree fruit growers, USDA market data, and Washington State tree fruit industry reports. Net Present Value estimations were calculated using AgProfitTM software. The NPV estimate took into account production system cultivars and orchard architecture. Five scenarios were developed: 1) The current situation, 2) 10 percent reduction in yield and 7 percent reduction in harvest costs, 3) 20 percent reduction in yield and 15 percent reduction in harvest costs, 4) 30 percent reduction in yield and 20 percent reduction in harvest costs, and 5) a shift in productions systems and cultivars back to 2001 conditions. These scenarios were selected based upon feedback from industry stakeholder that suggested certified plant material increased orchard health thus without the NCPN, orchard yields would be lower. Additionally, it was suggested certified plant material fostered investment in new cultivars and orchard systems due to less risk from orchard diseases related losses. The results estimate the current NPV of grower returns in the PNW to be $2.6 billion (assuming an 8% discount rate over twenty years). Under the assumptions in this study, without plant certification programs, reductions in grower returns range from $828 million under scenario five to $4.7 billion under scenario four.<p><p>Keywords:

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