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Spatial Pattern of Trees Affected by Black Spot in Citrus Groves in Brazil

Citrus black spot (CBS), caused by Guignardia citricarpa, is the most important fungal disease of orange trees in Brazil. The spatial pattern of CBS-symptomatic trees was evaluated using the binomial dispersion index (D), Ripley's K function (K), and a Monte Carlo test for minimum mean distance (d) to understand the distribution of the pathogen. Disease was monitored in 7,790 citrus trees from four commercial groves. In one grove, disease incidence was assessed from 1999 to 2001 and, in the others, disease assessments were conducted only in 2002. Infected trees were aggregated based on the three statistical analyses used (D, K, and d) regardless of the CBS incidence. The binomial index of dispersion (D) indicated aggregation of CBS-affected trees for all groves and for various quadrat sizes (2 by 2, 3 by 3, 4 by 4… up to 10 by 10). According to Ripley's K function, the dependence among symptomatic trees comprised two to three neighboring trees. Disease dispersion occurred at distances below 24.7 m according to the test for d. This suggests that the dispersion of inoculum is highly important over short distances. As a consequence, the required sample size to achieve a level of accuracy of C = 20% increases exponentially with the decrease in incidence of CBS below 15% infected plants.