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Potential Economic Consequences of the Entry of an Exotic Fungal Pest: The Case of Soybean Rust. Fred Kuchler, Agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Natural Resource Economics Division, Washington, DC 20250; Michael Duffy(2), R. D. Shrum(3), and W. M. Dowler(4). (2)Agricultural economists, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Natural Resource Economics Division, Washington, DC 20250; (3)(4)Research plant pathologists, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Plant Disease Research Laboratory, Frederick, MD 21701. Phytopathology 74:916-920. Accepted for publication 2 March 1984. This article is in the public domain and not copyrightable. It may be freely reprinted with customary crediting of the source. The American Phytopathological Society, 1984. DOI: 10.1094/Phyto-74-916.

This report presents an analysis of the economic consequences if a virulent race of the soybean rust pathogen, Phakopsora pachyrhizi, were to become established in the United States. The analysis uses an econometric-simulation model to estimate the consequences of soybean rust under two alternative environmental and grower response assumptions. Although profits to some soybean farmers and producers of other feed grains would rise, total losses to consumers and other sectors of the U.S. economy are forecasted to exceed $7.2 billion per year even with a conservative estimate of potential damage. The extent and nature of these losses depend on the assumed severity and spread of the disease.