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Development of a Simple Mechanistic Model of Cereal Rust Progress. Richard A. Fleming, Institute of Resource Ecology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, Present address: Department of Environmental Engineering, Hollister Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853; Phytopathology 73:308-312. Accepted for publication 8 July 1982. Copyright 1983 The American Phytopathological Society. DOI: 10.1094/Phyto-73-308.

A mechanistic mathematical model of plant disease progress, based on cereal rust biology, is derived. The model provides an explanation for R. D. Berger's finding that disease progress data were consistently better described by the Gompertz equation than by the conventionally used logistic equation.

Additional keywords: compound interest disease, polycyclic disease, uredial infection cycle.