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Oral: Schroth Faces of the Future Symposium: Epidemiology and Management


Crystal ballroom dancing for phytoepidemiological prospecting
D. ANCO (1) (1) Clemson University, U.S.A.

Epidemiology has been used to reveal obscured relationships, substantiate supposed claims and provide confidence for management decisions. Its application can increase resource and time efficiency while concurrently decreasing detriments like pesticide resistance and yield loss. At heart, it studies disease-related changes over spacetime. How then, might epidemiology and disease management manifest as time itself changes? Systems-level integrative approaches, advances in detection technologies and -omics studies, statistics in allied fields and Phytobiomes Initiative-inspired work are poised to integrate towards a collective springboard from which future epidemiological directions may spawn. This talk will present model development research by the author, show how it fits into the progression of the discipline and posit portions of the possible future of epidemiology and disease management, including concurrent and lagged systems interactions, process-subcomponent prediction and applicability of non-Gaussian random effect distributions to plant disease epidemic modeling. Ideas will be illustrated through case studies and hypothetical epidemic scenarios in perennial and annual systems. Where applicable, points related to implementing proposed ideas on a practical level will be discussed.