Poster: Epidemiology: Climate Change
607-P
Impacts of climate change on wheat powdery mildew epidemics in China
Y. Zhou (1), X. Tang (1) (1) Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China
Epidemics of wheat powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici) have been highly destructive to winter wheat in China. We analyzed trends in the regions of wheat powdery mildew epidemics in China from 1970 to 2012 and PA (percent area affected by wheat powdery mildew) in response to climate change. Using PA and temperature for pathogen oversummering and overwintering periods, a model was constructed and subsequently used to predict changes in PA for 15 Global Climate Models under low (B1), medium (A1B), and high (A2) climate emission scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s relative to the 1970–2009 period. Our results showed a significant increase in T (mean monthly air temperature) (P < 0.001), while SH (sunshine hours) and RH (relative humidity) decreased. Using the original value method, there was a significant positive relationship between T and PA (P < 0.05). Using the first-differences time-series value method, ΔT (first-differences in T) in oversummering and late spring periods were negative for ΔPA (first-differences in PA) while positive relationships were recorded in the rest of the periods. The results using the first-differences time-series value method were more precise for disease epidemics. The results of model prediction indicate that the values for the percent area affected by powdery mildew will increase in future. These findings will aid in decision making for management strategies of wheat powdery mildew.