Symposium Discussion Forum

Markets Impact: Effects on Producers

Businesses of course don't want to spend a single dime or 10-minutes worth of time adjusting to an affliction like Karnal bunt, but of course they have had to.

Dan Biggerstaff, General Manager of Western Plant Breeders, provides an extensive review of their experience so far in his paper, sub-titled, Sixteen Weeks with a Political Disease.

Taylor Walsh - 10:55am Jun 27, 1996 EDT (#1 of 6)

OnSite Interactive Productions

A "mosquito in the living room"...?

In April, Associated Press writer Paul Davenport wrote an article surveying the emerging impact of Karnal bunt on businesses in the producing states. Have conditions changed since April? Here are some of the economic factors he identified:

Arizona's $47 million wheat crop amounted to .5 percent of the bushels grown nationwide

The current program could cost the federal government alone $24.7 million this year, and is anticipated to run five years.

The federal government paid farmers in four New Mexico counties and two counties in far western Texas $300 per acre in compensation for plowing under their fields

Growers in Arizona have complained the statewide quarantine imposed March 25 is too stringent.

The president of the Arizona Farm Bureau observed: "Many of us are feeling right now that we've found a mosquito in our living room and we're running around with a sledge hammer..."

Harvesting equipment and workers' clothing must be sanitized before moving between fields, at a cost the Arizona Farm Bureau estimates at $18,290 per farm.

Growers worry their crops will sell for a third less than expected and the USDA won't make up the difference. Growers and the state want the federal government to pay farmers the difference between prices set in pre-Karnal bunt contracts and prices actually paid.

No dollar estimates can be made until the crops are tested and the degree of infestation is known.

Some grain mills won't make their normal purchases of Arizona durum wheat for pasta flour because, as one mill manager put it: ''If they find as much as one spore, we could be put under quarantine."

Excerpted from AP article, "Inspections For Fungus Readied As Arizona-California Crop Nears Harvest," April 17, 1996. The full text is available from the Internet LinksPage in the Symposium.

Kim C. Shantz - 12:01am Jul 4, 1996 EDT (#2 of 6)

This quote from AP is a good example how USDA and officials from non KB States distort facts in order to justify the quarantine. They often disparage the significance of our wheat crop. The Arizona wheat crop was not worth $47 million dollars this year but $90 million. Furthermore when making this kind of comparison one should use the value of all the wheat in the quarantine area which is closer to $150 million. Most of the wheat grown in the quarantine area is durum wheat and the 28 million bushels produced in 1996 is a very significant percentage of the total U.S. production for this market class. Comparisons of acreage between states are not valid either because Arizona and California average nearly 100 bushels per acre while many wheat states only average 30-35 bushels per acre. The wheat acreage in the quarantined area thus becomes nearly one million acre equivalents compared say, to North Dakota. What wheat state in the USA would consider 1 million acres as insignificant?

Sara Vogel. the North Dakota State Commissioner of Agriculture, stated in her comments on the Arizona quarantine, that the Arizona wheat crop is 1 per cent of North Dakota's $1 billion crop. Arizona has a recent historical average of 10 million bushel. When did North Dakota start producing a crop of 1 billion bushels of wheat?

Certainly the motives of the officials from North Dakota have to be questioned because they stand to gain the most from the demise of the desert durum production. North Dakota needs to be reminded that Canada has taken a far larger percentage of their durum market over the last 25 years than has desert durum. Canadian durum production has risen from about 50 million bushels per year to about 170 million. Desert durum has gone from 0 to 30 million bushels in the same period. Furthermore, neither North Dakota nor Canada have the varieties or the climate to produce the strong tenacious gluten quality that is required for our identity preserved programs for Italy.

Gerald Holmes - 03:30am Jul 9, 1996 EDT (#3 of 6)

Univ. Calif. Coop. Ext. Imperial Co.

Speaking only for contracted wheat in Imperial Valley, the situation is much better than most people are portraying. Wheat is moving and growers are making money. They're not making as much as they would on the open market, but they are still making a good profit. Even the General Manager at the major wheat exporting firm in Imperial Valley says that we're doing ourselves a diservice to paint the picture too bleak.

In Imperial Valley we have not seen a bunted kernel nor a preharvest sample that is positive for teliospores. The only sign of KB was on planted seed (960 acres out of 106,592) and in two railcars. Repeated sampling of positive railcars were all negative. No one knows where the spores came from.

Marcia McMullen - 03:48pm Jul 15, 1996 EDT (#4 of 6)

I have been asked by Cindy Ash to respond to Kim Shantz's remarks posted on July 4.

As a plant pathologist, I believe the biological and production threats posed by Karnal bunt appear to be minimal compared to so many other pest problems of wheat. Unfortunately, it has been difficult to convince export partners otherwise, and until that time, states such as North Dakota (ND) responded accordingly to preserve their markets. It is very unfortunate that discovery of Karnal bunt spores in a few areas had such great financial impact on some wheat producers - I wouldn't wish those events on anybody. But with wheat as a major export commodity for the US and for the Plains states such as ND, it is understandable that their State Depts. of Agriculture wished to prevent movement of Karnal bunt into their states. In ND, wheat is the number one economic driving force! For example:

a. 91% of all land in ND is farmed

b. all of the 33,000+ ND farmers grow wheat as a cash crop

c. agriculture provides the number one economic base in ND

d. within that agriculture base, wheat provides the greatest income (40%)

e. 12.7 million acres are planted to hard red spring wheat and durum in ND in 1996

f. if ND producers only produce an average crop this year, over 400 million bushels of wheat valued at over $2.2 billion will be produced. The world market needs this wheat!

g. over the past 10 years (including the drought years), average production was 310 million bu (so Arizona's average crop of 10 million bushels would equal about 3% (not 1%) of ND's average crop)

h. small grains grow well in the relatively cool, arid climate of ND and other Plains states. The temperature and precipitation limitiations of ND's climate prevent producers from growing a number of crops that may be grown in warmer climates or that can be grown under irrigation. Although there is great interest in alternative crops and active research - the distance to markets, as well as climatic conditions limit development and utilization.

i. the majority of ND wheat is grown for export markets. Hard red spring, hard red winter, and durum breeding programs emphasize quality aspects of protein, bread-making quality, strong gluten strength, etc. Distance from ports necessitates that we have a good product to sell.

A Karnal bunt infestation could be disastrous to ND. A strong wheat market is essential to all of the producers of the state and to every citizen of the state. As with many states, a poor grain economy hurts the entire state's economy. I believe it was the State Dept. of Agriculture's responsibility to protect that economy, but it will take all of us working together to find solutions that will prevent a similar scenario from developing again, perhaps with some yet to be identified pest.

Dan Biggerstaff - 12:43pm Jul 31, 1996 EDT (#5 of 6)

Western Plant Breeders

To Gerald Holmes, re: Your July 9 comments

I realize this is a very tardy response to your comments. By now you may hold a very different view than you held in early July.

I strongly disagree with your statement that: "..contracted wheat.., the situation is much better than most people are portraying." The situation is worse than most people are portraying. It is true that much of this year's harvest of contracted wheat (mostly Desert Durum for you Northern readers) is being moved to markets. In addition, the value and reputation of Desert Durum has been severely and unnecessarily damaged.

Those growers and handlers who may have dumped No. 1, hard, amber durum as feed, are being told that the UDSA will compensate them for the loss. Time will tell. Those who don't have contracts may be in a less favorable position.

Think about next year's and subsequent KB host crops. If the present quarantine situation, or anything similar, continues, there will be a dramatic decline in acreage of host crops. It is questionable if there will be any compensation programs in place next year. Think about the effect this will have on produce, cotton, and hay rotations. Then consider the cereal seed business in your area. It will be essentially destroyed.

Finally, consider the loss of all winter nursery breeding and seed increases for northern US and Canadian programs. This will include non-host crops such as barley, peas, canola, etc. Breeders will not risk working in a quarantine area, not because of any true pathologic risk, but because of regulator risk. Who will accept the risk of having to Clorox a $70,000 plot combine after it is used to harvest peas or barley!

Dan Biggerstaff - 03:25pm Jul 31, 1996 EDT (#6 of 6)

Western Plant Breeders

To Marcia McMullen:

The following comments are in response to your posting of July 15.

You say that it has been difficult to convince export partners that Karnal bunt poses minimal biological and production threats. Who has tried? Certainly not the USDA, APHIS, or other government agencies. The USDA, especially the APHIS division, has been trying for years to do just the opposite. How else could they justify quarantining Mexico because of KB? Look at the language in the Federal Register describing Karnal bunt. Do you believe that Karnal bunt is a serious disease of wheat caused by a highly infectious fungus? (See Section 3 of my paper for exact quotations.)

USDA/APHIS actions have made KB a serious trade problem. Wheat importing countries did not make KB a big issue, the US did! Prior to the US imposed quarantine on Mexico, only a few wheat-importing countries considered KB a serious phytosanitary concern. After this ill-conceived, political quarantine was imposed, the number of countries listing KB on their quarantine list jumped to 21 (some say 25). Since the USDA/APHIS quarantines were imposed on parts of the Southwest, this number has doubled. Some of the countries now requiring KB free wheat from the US are themselves essentially non-wheat growing countries. To add further insult, several countries will (or would) accept durum from Mexico but not from our quarantine area.

All wheat producing states in the US would certainly prefer to be free of KB. WPB does research in 11 wheat producing states, so we know first-hand the importance of wheat production in these states. We also know now that KB has been present in AZ and Southern CA for at least five years. The highest infection rates were probably in 1993 and 1995 (very low infection rates, but higher than 1996). The grain and seed produced in those five years has been moved through marketing channels. Does it seem somewhat silly to impose a quarantine after the teliospores APHIS intends to "control and eradicate" are widely distributed? Compare APHIS actions in the last four months to Australia's actions earlier this year when 'Claviceps africana' was detected in sorghum crops.

The basic point that many outside the quarantine fail to grasp is quite simple. The APHIS quarantine of regions of the Southwest does not protect them from Karnal bunt teliospores! KB teliospores will be moved by natural means (birds, insects, wind, sand storms, etc.) and by human activities impossible to regulate. For example: winter tourists and soil movement on produce grown in the Southwest and Mexico. Don't be naive, soil will move regardless of a quarantine. Current example: dry onions from areas of Mexico known to have KB teliospores present in the soil move into US markets.

If states where no KB infections have been detected have a suitable environment for KB, it will occur there sometime. There is scant evidence that quarantine actions will even affect the rate of movement If ND is protected from KB, it will be because of its environment, not because of APHIS activities. The only way that a Karnal bunt infestation could be disatrous to ND is if the USDA fails to correct political trade barriers.

The only way all wheat producing states can protect their markets from political diseases, is to push for political solutions. Zero tolerance standards for TCK and KB are unrealistic and unnecessary.

From a pathologic standpoint, the best way for wheat producing states to protect their production from diseases is through use of resistant varieties, proper use of available pesticides, and good agronomic practices.

© Copyright 1996 by the American Phytopathological Society